Financial Market Analysis

Project description
• Financial Market Analysis: Each approx. 3/4 – 1 ½ pages in length
a) Treasury Yield Curve
1. Has the yield curve changed or remained the same over the time period? Explain the current shape relative to past years. What does this imply about the future direction of the economy? Use your economic analysis as back up for these changes.
2. Graph the curve at year end 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 (same chart)
b) Corporate Bond Credit Worthiness
1. Fill in the performance tab on your excel spreadsheet, completing bond sections.
2. Has high yield or investment grade outperformed and why? Evaluate over time and give reasoning again based on economic analysis.
3. Analyze the corporate default rate over the same time period, including default by investment versus non-investment grade, upgrades versus downgrades, bond issuance. Evaluate using economic analysis

• Forecast the economy & any resulting change in interest rates & the stock market over the next year (approx. 6-12 months). You must discuss the direction of long term rates as well as short term rates. If you think monetary policy will shift in the next 6-12 months that should be part of your forecast as well. Include supporting information such as economic indicators or info from your yield curve and/or credit worthiness analysis (approx. 1 – 1 1/2 page)

Implementation: Fill in the portfolio distribution table for all securities invested. No more than 1/3 of your portfolio can be basic indexed funds/ ETF’s. For example, a general large cap ETF/ fund counts as part of that 1/3, but an ETF indexed to financials does not. No more than 5% can invested in any one individual asset but up 15% can be invested in a fund. You should choose at least one corporate bond (IG or HY) for an in depth analysis. This individual bond must have a maturity three years or longer for excel work.
a) Portfolio Analysis (1/2 page and should correlate to your economic/market forecast)
1. Describe your overall portfolio characteristics and compare to the Barclays Aggregate.
2. Explain your choice of portfolio duration, convexity and credit quality versus the index in relation to your forecast of interest rates, economy, etc.

b) Corporate Bond Analysis (approximately 2-3 pgs)My company is Walmart.
1. Give a very brief company summary in terms of industry, product, etc. State in your own words what the company does, industry etc.
2. Using your quantitative results and company research, analyze the credit quality of the company, focusing in on the company’s ability to repay principal and interest.
3. You MUST answer the following questions and not just review the ratios.
i. How profitable from an operating standpoint is your company?
ii. Does your firm have exposure internationally? Is it significant? Worrisome?
iii. Is your firm expanding or shrinking and have these activities affected your company’s cash flow/ profits? Why is it expanding? Shrinking?
iv. Look at the capital structure and liquidity over the past five years. Is your firm more or less financially leveraged? If so, what is it using the money for? If not, where did it get the cash flow to pay it down over time?
4. Has its credit rating changed over the past several years? If so, explain the change

Completing your portfolio: For funds, copy and paste performance, risk and expense data directly into excel worksheet and write a brief write-up of the fund or company. For individual bonds state the company’s credit rating and why this specific bond fits into your portfolio (a paragraph is sufficient – do not copy the profile of the company. Rather explain how this company fits into your client’s portfolio using a couple of ratios to back up your selection). For all funds, explain why you chose passive or active management and why this particular fund and/or ETF.