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August 3rd, 2017 
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QUESTION 1
Assume you work in HR planning for a large hotel/resort in mobile, AL. based on the past data, you have the following transition probability matrix for key jobs. Assume that your workforce numbers will be staying the same (the work force numbers are listed in parentheses next to each job).
Mobile hotel
| Job (work force) | Housekeeping | Maintenance | Front desk | Guest house | Exit |
| Housekeeping (160) | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| Maintenance (110) | 0.05 | 0.75 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.15 |
| Front Desk (102) | 0 | 0.03 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| Guest House (98) | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.15 |
a) Summarize trends you see in terms of movement ratio, within, and out of jobs. Show your result in a table and mention in bullet points the key trends you see(e.g. the majority of workers in XYZ job exit the organization). Note use decimals for FTEs (e.g.19.0 FTEs) rather than rounding off.
PART A) ANSWER;
Mobile hotel
| Job Workforce | Housekeeping | Maintenance | Front Desk | Guest House | Exit |
| House Keeping | 64 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 88 |
| Maintenance | 5.5 | 82.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 16.5 |
| Front Office | 0 | 3.06 | 68.34 | 17.24 | 13.26 |
| Guest House | 0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 68.6 | 14.7 |
Majority of workers is observed in the house keeping job in the organization with a total of 88 exiting out of a possible 160 workers. This represents 55% of the total housekeepers recruited in the organization. The least exit is observed in the front office with only 13.26 exiting out of a total 102 work force which represents 13 % of the total workforce in the front office job. The percentage exit in maintenance and guest house is the same with only 15% exiting out of their total workforce.
PART B);
Forecast availabilities of staff for these jobs for next year (again assume that the work force will remain the same)
ANSWER
The forecasts for the availability of staff for the job next year:
Housekeeping job
If the percentage that exited is 55% this year we assume another 55% will exit the following year then it implies the number that will be present will be (0.45*72) 32.4
Maintenance job- for this job the exit percentage is 13%. With such a trend the following year another 15% exit implying that the remaining workforce will be (0.85*93.5) 79.48 jobs
Front Desk job
Assuming that 13 % exit by next year the available staff will be (0.87*88.74) 77.2 staff members
Guest Service job
If a similar 15 5 exit then the following year we will have a total of (0.85*83.3) 70.81staff remaining.
PART C)
Identify the gaps (shortages and surpluses) for each job
ANSWER;
The gaps for the jobs above will be
House keeping 160 are required and then 72 are recruited while 88 leave the job; this implies that there is a shortage of 16 workers since the total number of housekeepers is 72 but 88 exits leaving 0 workers hence a shortage of 160 workers
Maintenance job has a requirement of 110 and then the total number recruited is 138.5 and the exit number is 16.5 which leave a surplus of 12 workers.
Front office job has a requirement of 102 workers and a total of 88.64 are recruited which means 88.64 are present but the exit number is 13.26 workers hence a deficit of 26.52 exists.
Guest house job the total requirement is 98workers while the total recruited is 83.3 workers while the total exit is 14.7 hence the deficit is 29.4workers.
PART D)
Discuss the limitations of this analysis for planning next years staffing activities.
ANSWER;
The limitations of this type of planning are that it is tedious and involving to determine the exit and the possible recruitment. Besides, it is not easy to approximate the next year’s exit or recruitment due to uncertainty in economic environment that might affect the rate of exit and hiring for the organization.
QUESTION 2)
Your boss has no background in staffing and she has asked you to help her understand the following information about 3 predictors (interview, personality test and work sample) that you are thinking about using to hire sales people at your company:
Unstructured interview scores and job performance: r=0.11 p= 0.56
Personality test scores and job performance: r= 0.35,p<0.01**
Work sample test scores and job performance: r=0.30, p<0.05
Interview scores and absenteeism: r= 0.30, p< 0.01**
Personality scores and absenteeism: r= -0.1 P<0.01**
Work sample test scores and absenteeism: r= -0.18 p=0.06
A )Your boss is totally confused about p-values. Explain to her in 1-2 sentences what the p-values means.
ANSWER;
The p-values show the probability between the events occurrence in the observed phenomenon and their statistical significance levels’
QUESTION 2 B)
Based on statistical significance and then practical significance, which predictor is the best to use for predicting job performance? Explain
ANSWER;
The best predictor is the practical significance which may be based on interaction of real factors that determine job performance some factors may be either positive or negative. As for statistical significance it is based on mere speculation, calculations and guess work which might be true or not. Hence correlation coefficient will be used to determine the variance in factors related to the job and thereby making decisions. Interpretation may be ineffective for layman manager..
QUESTION 2C)
Based on the statistical significance and then practical significance, which predictor I the best to use for predicting absenteeism? Explain
ANSWER;
The best predictor for absenteeism is the practical significance which is based on real observations and experience. For the statistical significance, it is only based on calculations and probabilities which might have various errors that can contribute to poor results.
QUESTION 3A);
Assume that you work as an HR manager in a call center for a clothing catalogue company (e.g., LL Bean). Your company is responsible for fielding calls from customers who wish to place orders, as well as from customers who wish to complain about merchandise, shipping, etc. despite the shaky economy, the absenteeism rate among the Customer Service Representative (CSR) is high. Your boss is clueless about criterion-related validity, but he has just returned from SHRM conference in which the presentation was about concurrent and predictive criterion-related studies. He has asked you to help him better understand how these different forms of criterion related validity work. Assume he wants you to examine the validity of an integrity test in predicting CSR absenteeism from work.
a) Discuss your plan for conducting a concurrent criterion-related study for this situation. Assume that you have 150 CSRs employed at the call center.
ANSWER;
In evaluating the integrity tests, first of all the honesty and moral traits of the applicant will be analyzed. Factors to use in connecting integrity will be counterproductive behaviors such as absenteeism, sabotage, violence, theft among others. By use of cognitive ability test validity will be enhanced. The elements to consider in conducting such a test will include validity, which can be determined by administration method through paper or electronic and subgroup scores which will enable the HR to note the difference in applicants’ personality based integrity (Cullen and Sackett, 2004). From the subgroup say of 15 I will be able to determine the integrity level of all the subjects/employees. This will be in a 10 groups which will be easy to administer and less expensive.
QUESTION 3B);
Given that your boss is clueless on validity; it is your job to educate him about this study. Based on the above scenario, discuss one advantage and one disadvantage of choosing this type of study over the predictive criterion-related study
ANSWER
One main advantage of using this method is that this is a very cheap method of testing the applicants as the development costs are too low and that it does not require high skills for the administrators to conduct such a test. Besides, there high investment returns where counterproductive conducts are involved which can help avoid them since they are very caustic to the organization. The main disadvantage is that the tests may not contain important elements required for the job hence the probability of recruiting incompetent personnel is high. This might be very harmful to the organization.
Reference
Cullen, M. J., & Sackett, P. R (2004), integrity testing in the work place, In J.C. Thomas & M
Hersen (Eds.), comprehensive handbook of psychological assessment, volume $; industrial and organizational psychology (pp.149-165), Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & sons.
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