Decision Analysis

This is task 3 in a series of 4 that all rely on the same reading materials, case study and software tools (Excel OM and POM) For this task, T3 the formatting rules are the same I would really like you to label each section of the task exactly as outlined in the example paper structure document and mirroring the section title headings of the assignment evaluation criteria document. Also for any of the analysis tables and/or charts and graphs that you provide in the Excel workbook, I need you label them for the section of the paper they are relevant to i.e. A, A1, A1a, B, B1, B2, C so I can double check the analysis and include additional charts or tables in the final document if I choose to. That output is a necessary part of the assignment. Review all of the attached material for detailed instructions and examples.

I really need you to use the supplied reading materials and have the bulk of the references used coming from those materials. A few others are ok but the bulk should be from the materials supplied. Please reference the study guides to see which chapters are applicable to a given task.
Additional reading materials, video tutorials, and excel OM and POM applications required for this assignment that were too large to attach here were provided via a Dropbox link to the support staff during the Task 1 order. Things specifically like the POM software tool and the videos specific to this assignment that were too large are available there. Let me know via message if you either don’t have or need those files.

Task:
For this task, you will use the Shuzworld case study attached separately. You will need to read the entire case study to be able to complete this task correctly.
The software tools (Excel OM & POM for Windows) to perform the required decision analysis are also supplied as separate attachments. The software includes multiple decision analysis tools used to complete the tasks and produce the necessary results.

Prepare a memo/report to your boss in which you do the following:

A. Recommend which method (i.e., using reconditioned equipment, purchasing new equipment in its Shanghai plant, or outsourcing to another manufacturing operation) Shuzworld should use for the manufacturing of its sneakers, utilizing the appropriate decision analysis tool.
1. Submit a copy of the output from your decision analysis tool of choice.
a. Explain why you chose the decision analysis tool you used.

B. Develop a sales volume forecast using the least squares method and one other forecasting method.
1. Submit a copy of the output from the decision analysis tools you used.
2. Compare the results between the two methods you used.

C. Discuss how to apply control chart metrics to improve quality in the Shuzworld production line.

1) Introduction

2) Product profitability analysis: Kay would like to be able to better assign costs to each of AVS’s products, and has collected the following information about AVS activities.

• Harvesting activity – The Chardonnay grapes can be harvested at the average rate of 71.5 pounds/hour, while the generic white grapes are harvested at the rate of 100 pounds/hour. Harvesting includes costs related to tractors and harvest labor.
• Crush activity – Relates to the pounds of grapes crushed. Includes costs of crusher equipment and crush labor.
• Fermenting activities – Barrel costs relate to the Chardonnay wines by the percentage of wine used in each wine type. Holding tanks relate to the Blanc de Blanc and the regular Chardonnay wines by the percentage of wine used in each wine type.
• Lab and supervision activities – Albert estimates that these activities are split 60% Chardonnay-Estate, 25% regular Chardonnay, and 15% Blanc de Blanc.
• Other production activities and costs not directly associated with a specific wine – Allocate according to the number of bottles produced of each wine.
• Administrative activities – Allocate according to sales revenues.

a. Use this information, along with the information given in the case, to construct a product profitability analysis. Assume that AVS did not buy the grapes referred to in Question 2.

b. What would you recommend to Kay Aproveche regarding the product profitability analysis?