Climate Modelling

(Understanding how climate models work and what they mean)

Section 1: Model and emissions uncertainty
1. Go to http://www.csiro.au/ozclim/home.do
and click on ?�advanced’
2. Login = Email address ; Password = XXXXXX
(you will have to register to do this, it is free)
3. Select and DO NOT change the following settings:
Rate of global warming – leave unchanged
Year – ?�2050’
Season or Month – ?�Annual’
4. Create temperature and rainfall projections. Report changes to mean annual temperature and rainfall for Victoria in the table below.
Note: to create projections click ?�Generate Map’; to find Victorian average click on Victoria

Part A – TEMPERATURE
Variable – ?�Mean temperature’
Base climate (1990) – ?�Show change from base climate’
Global Climate Model –BCCR: BCM2.0
Emission scenarios – A1FI, A1B, B1

Part B – TEMPERATURE
Variable – ?�Mean temperature’
Base climate (1990) – ?�Show change from base climate’
Global Climate Model – CSIRO: CSIRO Mk3.5
Emission scenarios – A1FI, A1B, B1

Part C – RAINFALL
Variable – ?�Rainfall’
Base climate (1990) – ?�Show change from base climate (%)’
Global Climate Model –BCCR: BCM2.0
Emission scenarios – A1FI, A1B, B1

Part D – RAINFALL
Variable – ?�Rainfall’
Base climate (1990) – ?�Show change from base climate (%)’
Global Climate Model – CSIRO: CSIRO Mk3.5
Emission scenarios – A1FI, A1B, B1
You will report on 6 values for mean temperature, 3 Emission scenarios (in oC) for the BCCR:BCM2.0 and 3 Emission scenarios (in oC) for CSIRO:CSIRO Mk3.5 FOR VICTORIA.
You will also report on 6 values for rainfall, 3 Emission scenarios (in %) for the BCCR:BCM2.0 and 3 Emission scenarios (in %) for CSIRO:CSIRO Mk3.5 FOR VICTORIA.
(Don’t forget you are just looking at the mean temperature and rainfall % change for Victoria ONLY)

An easy way to look at this is by filling in the table below. You should have no problems in following the step by step instruction on the assignment to get these values.

Section 1
Victoria
A1FI A1B B1
Mean Temp Rainfall Mean Temp Rainfall Mean Temp Rainfall
oC % oC % oC %
BCCR: BCM2.0
CSIRO: CSIRO Mk3.5

5. Write a very short report (see below for an example) of the differences between the global climate models and the emission scenarios for Victoria. You may want to comment on which global climate model gives the highest and lowest values for temperature and the largest changes in rainfall for Victoria. You may also want to comment on how the emission scenarios change the values.

Section 2: Regional and temporal variation
Using the information gained from Section 1 on the variability of climate projections, create summaries of anticipated temperature and rainfall projections for the following aspects:

Part A – regional variation
Summarise likely impacts for Tasmania for 2050 for rainfall as well as minimum and maximum temperature. Consider different impacts across the seasons and make sure you include appropriate variability.

Part B – regional variation
Summarise likely impacts for Western Australia for 2050 for rainfall as well as minimum and maximum temperature. Consider different impacts across the seasons and make sure you include appropriate variability.

Part C – temporal variation
Summarise likely impacts for Tasmania for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070. Only consider changes annually to rainfall and mean temperature. Make sure you include appropriate variability.

Part D – temporal variation
Summarise likely impacts for Western Australia for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070. Only consider changes annually to rainfall and mean temperature. Make sure you include appropriate variability.
(2050, regional) Tasmania Western Australia
Part A & B Nov – Apr May – Oct Nov – Apr May – Oct
T Max
T Min
Rainfall
(2030, 2050, 2070; temporal) Tasmania Western Australia
Part C & D 2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
T Mean
Rainfall

For each section I am looking at a very short written summary which might say something along the lines of:
Regional variation
The best estimate of temperature change in XXXX by 2050 is around 1.0ºC, with a warming range of around 0.7-0.9ºC in coastal areas and 1-1.2ºC inland. Mean warming in winter is a little less than in the other seasons, as low as 0.5ºC in the far south. The best estimate of temperature change does not vary much among the emission scenarios. The range is about 0.75ºC (for B1) to 1.0ºC (for A1F1) Therefore I focused on the midrange A1B case which has a global warming of 0.9ºC by 2050.
Best estimates of rainfall change shows decreases of 2% to 5%. Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, particularly in the south-west where they reach 10%. In summer and autumn decreases are smaller (3%) and there are slight increases (1%) in the east.