ASB 4601-4801-4101-4851: Research Methods
Instructor: Prof K. Nikolopoulos, Dr. Eng., ITP, P2P
Assignment
Deadline: 11/12/2014 at 16.00 (Weight: 40% of module mark)
Submit BOTH hard-copy and soft-copy(Blackboard)
Real Case study:
Decisions in USASuperCars
Scenario: USASuperCars sells luxury sports cars. It has just signed a contract to sell in New Year’s Day (01-01-2016) time, a batch of these super cars to various customers around the globe. The following table shows the orders from eight customers. The selling prices are fixed and in local currencies at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of the delivery. Of course there is uncertainty in the exchange rates, and in order to cope with this uncertainty estimates of the expected value and standard deviation of these have been provided by the Bank of America for all but one (EUR) of the currencies. The report that came with these estimates stated that these rates are normally distributed and independent.
Worldwide Orders
Exchange Rate (to $)
Customer
Quantity
Selling Price
Expected value (Mean)
Standard Deviation
UK
10
£ 57,500
$ 1.4MM/£
$ 0.041/£
France
2
65,000 €
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
Japan 1
5
Y 8,400,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Japan 2
3
Y 9,000,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Canada 1
2
CAD 97,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
Canada 2
2
CAD 100,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
South Africa
2
R 4,100,000
$.0.0211/R
$.0.00083/R
USA
1
$100,000
–
–
DD/MM/YY Is your Date of Birth
Questions:
1) For the exchange rate of EUR/USD, where estimates are not available, create an estimate by
using the daily closing values of the exchange rate from the last 24 months. Argue which
period might be most relevant, if you decide to use less than the full 24-month period to
create your estimate. Assume that the exchange rate is normally distributed, calculate the
mean and the standard deviation, and use these to fill in the values for France in the table
of orders.
2) Specify the distribution and report the mean and the standard deviation of total revenue in
$.
3) a) What is the probability that this revenue will exceed $ 2,280,000?
b) What is the probability that this revenue will be less than $ 2,160,000?
4) HSBC offers to pay a certain sum of $2,150,000, in return for the uncertain revenue in local
currencies. Give an opinion as to whether this is a good offer for USASuperCars or not?
5) In USASuperCars, the Sales manager is willing to accept HSBC’s offer, but the CEO is not.
Who is more risk-averse?
6) What other risks is the bank taking, apart from the uncertainty in the exchange rates?
7) If the offer is to pay the certain sum next week rather than on New Year’s Day, would that
make any difference? When would the bank and when the company would prefer the
payment to be made, and why?
8) USASuperCars has accepted HSBC’s offer. Assuming the bank will convert all currencies into
US dollars at the prevailing exchange rates. What is the probability that the bank will incur a
loss?
9) The bank defines its Value-at-Risk as the loss that occurs at the 5th percentile of the
uncertain revenue (5% left tail of the distribution). What is the bank’s Value-at-Risk and
what is the bank’s expected profit?
10) What other options does the bank has if they decide not to convert all/some of the
currencies in New Year’s Day?
Marking scheme: 50% of the mark comes from the aforementioned ten questions (5% for each), and
50% from the overall presentation of the ‘business’ report. A ‘business’ report must have a nice
cover, a good executive summary, an introduction and a main body that reads through smoothly
and uses ‘lay terms’, not statistical jargon. The report should be printed, and formatted with the
highest possible quality of presentation. It must contain graphs and as much ‘colour’ as possible. No
assumptions should be made on the academic background and experience of the potential
readership. References should be used carefully and the majority coming from practitioner/business
sources (www, the press, etc) and any technical details /analysis should be in an appendix. Overall
the main body should not be more than 2500 words. Best of Luck, Kostas

ASB 4601-4801-4101-4851: Research Methods
Instructor: Prof K. Nikolopoulos, Dr. Eng., ITP, P2P
Assignment
Deadline: 11/12/2014 at 16.00 (Weight: 40% of module mark)
Submit BOTH hard-copy and soft-copy(Blackboard)
Real Case study:
Decisions in USASuperCars
Scenario: USASuperCars sells luxury sports cars. It has just signed a contract to sell in New Year’s Day (01-01-2016) time, a batch of these super cars to various customers around the globe. The following table shows the orders from eight customers. The selling prices are fixed and in local currencies at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of the delivery. Of course there is uncertainty in the exchange rates, and in order to cope with this uncertainty estimates of the expected value and standard deviation of these have been provided by the Bank of America for all but one (EUR) of the currencies. The report that came with these estimates stated that these rates are normally distributed and independent.
Worldwide Orders
Exchange Rate (to $)
Customer
Quantity
Selling Price
Expected value (Mean)
Standard Deviation
UK
10
£ 57,500
$ 1.4MM/£
$ 0.041/£
France
2
65,000 €
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
Japan 1
5
Y 8,400,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Japan 2
3
Y 9,000,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Canada 1
2
CAD 97,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
Canada 2
2
CAD 100,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
South Africa
2
R 4,100,000
$.0.0211/R
$.0.00083/R
USA
1
$100,000
–
–
DD/MM/YY Is your Date of Birth
Questions:
1) For the exchange rate of EUR/USD, where estimates are not available, create an estimate by
using the daily closing values of the exchange rate from the last 24 months. Argue which
period might be most relevant, if you decide to use less than the full 24-month period to
create your estimate. Assume that the exchange rate is normally distributed, calculate the
mean and the standard deviation, and use these to fill in the values for France in the table
of orders.
2) Specify the distribution and report the mean and the standard deviation of total revenue in
$.
3) a) What is the probability that this revenue will exceed $ 2,280,000?
b) What is the probability that this revenue will be less than $ 2,160,000?
4) HSBC offers to pay a certain sum of $2,150,000, in return for the uncertain revenue in local
currencies. Give an opinion as to whether this is a good offer for USASuperCars or not?
5) In USASuperCars, the Sales manager is willing to accept HSBC’s offer, but the CEO is not.
Who is more risk-averse?
6) What other risks is the bank taking, apart from the uncertainty in the exchange rates?
7) If the offer is to pay the certain sum next week rather than on New Year’s Day, would that
make any difference? When would the bank and when the company would prefer the
payment to be made, and why?
8) USASuperCars has accepted HSBC’s offer. Assuming the bank will convert all currencies into
US dollars at the prevailing exchange rates. What is the probability that the bank will incur a
loss?
9) The bank defines its Value-at-Risk as the loss that occurs at the 5th percentile of the
uncertain revenue (5% left tail of the distribution). What is the bank’s Value-at-Risk and
what is the bank’s expected profit?
10) What other options does the bank has if they decide not to convert all/some of the
currencies in New Year’s Day?
Marking scheme: 50% of the mark comes from the aforementioned ten questions (5% for each), and
50% from the overall presentation of the ‘business’ report. A ‘business’ report must have a nice
cover, a good executive summary, an introduction and a main body that reads through smoothly
and uses ‘lay terms’, not statistical jargon. The report should be printed, and formatted with the
highest possible quality of presentation. It must contain graphs and as much ‘colour’ as possible. No
assumptions should be made on the academic background and experience of the potential
readership. References should be used carefully and the majority coming from practitioner/business
sources (www, the press, etc) and any technical details /analysis should be in an appendix. Overall
the main body should not be more than 2500 words. Best of Luck, Kostas

ASB 4601-4801-4101-4851: Research Methods
Instructor: Prof K. Nikolopoulos, Dr. Eng., ITP, P2P
Assignment
Deadline: 11/12/2014 at 16.00 (Weight: 40% of module mark)
Submit BOTH hard-copy and soft-copy(Blackboard)
Real Case study:
Decisions in USASuperCars
Scenario: USASuperCars sells luxury sports cars. It has just signed a contract to sell in New Year’s Day (01-01-2016) time, a batch of these super cars to various customers around the globe. The following table shows the orders from eight customers. The selling prices are fixed and in local currencies at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of the delivery. Of course there is uncertainty in the exchange rates, and in order to cope with this uncertainty estimates of the expected value and standard deviation of these have been provided by the Bank of America for all but one (EUR) of the currencies. The report that came with these estimates stated that these rates are normally distributed and independent.
Worldwide Orders
Exchange Rate (to $)
Customer
Quantity
Selling Price
Expected value (Mean)
Standard Deviation
UK
10
£ 57,500
$ 1.4MM/£
$ 0.041/£
France
2
65,000 €
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
Japan 1
5
Y 8,400,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Japan 2
3
Y 9,000,000
$0.009DD/Y
$0.00045/Y
Canada 1
2
CAD 97,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
Canada 2
2
CAD 100,000
$0.824YY/CAD
$0.0342/CAD
South Africa
2
R 4,100,000
$.0.0211/R
$.0.00083/R
USA
1
$100,000
–
–
DD/MM/YY Is your Date of Birth
Questions:
1) For the exchange rate of EUR/USD, where estimates are not available, create an estimate by
using the daily closing values of the exchange rate from the last 24 months. Argue which
period might be most relevant, if you decide to use less than the full 24-month period to
create your estimate. Assume that the exchange rate is normally distributed, calculate the
mean and the standard deviation, and use these to fill in the values for France in the table
of orders.
2) Specify the distribution and report the mean and the standard deviation of total revenue in
$.
3) a) What is the probability that this revenue will exceed $ 2,280,000?
b) What is the probability that this revenue will be less than $ 2,160,000?
4) HSBC offers to pay a certain sum of $2,150,000, in return for the uncertain revenue in local
currencies. Give an opinion as to whether this is a good offer for USASuperCars or not?
5) In USASuperCars, the Sales manager is willing to accept HSBC’s offer, but the CEO is not.
Who is more risk-averse?
6) What other risks is the bank taking, apart from the uncertainty in the exchange rates?
7) If the offer is to pay the certain sum next week rather than on New Year’s Day, would that
make any difference? When would the bank and when the company would prefer the
payment to be made, and why?
8) USASuperCars has accepted HSBC’s offer. Assuming the bank will convert all currencies into
US dollars at the prevailing exchange rates. What is the probability that the bank will incur a
loss?
9) The bank defines its Value-at-Risk as the loss that occurs at the 5th percentile of the
uncertain revenue (5% left tail of the distribution). What is the bank’s Value-at-Risk and
what is the bank’s expected profit?
10) What other options does the bank has if they decide not to convert all/some of the
currencies in New Year’s Day?
Marking scheme: 50% of the mark comes from the aforementioned ten questions (5% for each), and
50% from the overall presentation of the ‘business’ report. A ‘business’ report must have a nice
cover, a good executive summary, an introduction and a main body that reads through smoothly
and uses ‘lay terms’, not statistical jargon. The report should be printed, and formatted with the
highest possible quality of presentation. It must contain graphs and as much ‘colour’ as possible. No
assumptions should be made on the academic background and experience of the potential
readership. References should be used carefully and the majority coming from practitioner/business
sources (www, the press, etc) and any technical details /analysis should be in an appendix. Overall
the main body should not be more than 2500 words. Best of Luck, Kostas