Applied Intelligence Analysis
Order Description
Assignment: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment
Question: What, over the coming five years, are likely to be the three key threats to UK national security? Evaluate the likelihood of these threats being realised.

Word Count: 1500 words

Due Date: 22 April 2016

Revised Annex: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment Annex Template _V1_.xlsx

Revised Guidelines: PP3601 ISSA Booklet _4_.pdf

UK National Security: UK National Security.pdf

Terrorism: Database (https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/)
Do Excel then the actual analysis of 1500 words
Lecture 1: Source Evaluation

Lecture

¥ PowerPoint Lecture 1 (Source Evaluation).pdf

Core Reading

¥ Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Randolph H. Pherson, Critical thinking for strategic intelligence, Sage/CQ Press, 2013 (Chapter 9)

Essential Reading

¥ Davies, PHJ. ‘Collection and Assessment on Iraq: A critical look at Britain’s spy machinery’ Studies in Intelligence. studies49_04.pdf, 49 (4).
¥ Sherman, Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability,” Center for The Study of Intelligence, 1964. (https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html)

Recommended Reading

¥ Lord Butler_Review.pdf on Iraq WMD (Chapters 1 and 8)
¥ Joint Doctrine Publication JDP200.pdf 2-00 (JDP 2-00) (3rd Edition), August 2011 (Chapter 3 Section IV)
¥ Sundri Khalsa, Forecasting Terrorism Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques.pdf
Richard Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, PsychofIntelNew.pdf. (Chapter 8)

Lecture 2: Intelligence Collection Plan

Lecture:

¥ PowerPoint 3601 Collection Plan.pdf

Core Readings:

¥ Coping with the Complexity of Intelligence Analysis: Cognitive Assistants for Evidence-Based Reasoning.CompIA.pdf

Essential Readings:

¥ Army Open Source Field Manual, US Government, 2008 ARMY Open Source Field Manual.pdf
¥ Hank Prunckun, Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis: second Edition, 2015. Chapter 3

Recommended Readings:

Hank Prunckun, Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis: second Edition, 2015. Chapter 8
Lecture 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Lecture:

¥ Slides 3601 ACH.pdf

Core Readings:

¥ Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Washington DC (1999).PsychofIntelNew(1).pdf

Essential Readings:

¥ Chapter 16 in Bruce J, George R, Georgetown U. Analyzing Intelligence : Origins, Obstacles, And Innovations

Recommended Readings:

¥ Baron, Thinking and Deciding, Chapter 5BARON,+John+-+Thinking+and+deciding.pdf
¥ Fermat and Pascal on Probability pascal.pdf
¥ David T. Moore, Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis: Occasional Paper Number Fourteen, National Defense Intelligence College, Washington, DC, March 2007.2641.pdf
¥ Karl Popper The Logic of Scientific Discovery popper-logic-scientific-discovery.pdf
¥ F. J. Stech and C. El¨asser, .Midway revisited: Detection Deception by analysis of competing hypothesis,. MITRE Corporation, Tech. Rep., 2004 Midway.pdf
¥ Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science, Vol 185.Science-1974-Tversky-1124-31.pdf
¥ Jack Zlotnick, Baye’s Theorem for Intelligence Analysis, Studies in Intelligence Bayes for Intelligence.pdf
¥ Diane E. Chido, Structured Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses: Theory And Application, Mercyhurst College Institute of Intelligence Studies Press. SACH – Chido_1_.pdf
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