AP Statistics Semester 2 DUI State Project:

February 16th, 2016

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AP Statistics Semester 2 DUI State Project:

Linking Up Crash Data -The State Data Program (SDP) supports NHTSA’s efforts to identify traffic safety
problems, help develop and implement vehicle and driver countermeasures, evaluate motor vehicle standards,
and to study crash avoidance issues, crashworthiness issues, and regulations.

Crash OUtCOme Data Evaluation System Injuries resulting from motor
vehicle crashes remain a major public health problem. These injuries cause unnecessary burden of increased
taxes and insurance premiums. They can be prevented, or reduced, but only if we understand their type,
severity and cost in relation to the characteristics of the crash, vehicles, and persons involved. Crash data
alone do not indicate the injury problem in terms of the medical and financial consequences. By linking crash,
vehicle, and behavior characteristics to their specific medical and financial outcomes, we can identify
prevention factors.

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), “A motor vehicle crash is
considered to be alcohol-related if at least one driver or non-occupant (such as a pedestrian or
pedalcyclist) involved in the crash is determined to have had a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of .01
gram per deciliter (g/dL) or higher. Thus, any fatality that occurs in an alcohol-related crash is
considered an alcohol-related fatality. The term ‘alcohol-related‘ does not indicate that a crash or fatality
was caused by the presence of alcohol.” **A driver involved in a motor vehicle crash is considered
alcohol-impaired if he or she exhibits a BAC of .08 or greater.

http://responsibility.org/state-facts has each state statistics
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812017.pdf
http://www.ots.ca.gov/OTS_and_Traffic_Safety/Score_Card.asp
http://wwwyoutube.com/watch?v=RxgVmDeIDvo&NR=1
http://www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-statistics.html
http://www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-statistics-texas.html change state name!
http://www.centurycouncil.orgzlearn-the-facts/statefacts/states/CA
http://www.centugcouncil.orgzlearn-the-facts/drunk-driving-research#888
http://www.stopimpaireddrivingorgg

Before you start, save the example file and rename this file as YOURLASTNA1/IE_DUI Stats

1) Each student will research DUI statistics for a different one of the fifty states.

2) Students will research several websites for laws, penalties and data on driving fatalities associated
with alcohol such as wvvw.alcoholalert.com or http://alcoholpolicyniaaa.nih.gov/ or
http://www2.potsdam.edu/hansondj/DrinkingAndDriving.html

3) The main statistical components of the project are regression analysis, finding the best model, a two-
proportion z-test comparing to California, and a two-proportion z-interval. Minor statistical components
are boxplot and histogram.

Power Point, DVD, video, Poster or Prezi: with full page graphs and the following:

0 Introduction: What did the research reveal about the DUI laws and penalties for your
state? Any other interesting discoveries? How does this compare to California? How do the
2012* proportions of DUI fatalities in your state compare to California? Use a one-tailed
two-proportion z-test and two-proportion z-interval.

Copy data from http1//www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-stati stics-texas.html change state name!
and paste into columns into EXCEL spreadsheet and analyze the alcohol-related fatalities for the state
that was chosen. Find the alc-related proportions by dividing the column of alc-related fatalities by the
total fatalities in each year. Explanation of the data collected* by your research.

0 Make a boxplot of the DUI fatalities for your state for the years from 1982 to 2012 and comment
on the features of the boxplot. Make a histogram of the DUI fatalities (same data as the boxplot).
Compare and contrast the features of the histogram display to the boxplot.

0 Find six comparisons between your chosen state and California that was found in the 2012 State
of Drunk Driving Fatalities in America.
Linking Up Crash Data -The State Data Program (SDP) supports NHTSA’s efforts to identify traffic safety
problems, help develop and implement vehicle and driver countermeasures, evaluate motor vehicle standards, and to study crash avoidance issues, crashworthiness issues, and regulations .

Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES)

Injuries resulting from motor vehicle crashes remain a major public health problem. These injuries cause unnecessary burden of increased taxes and insurance premiums. They can be prevented, or reduced, but only if we understand their type, severity and cost in relation to the characteristics of the crash, vehicles, and persons involved. Crash data alone do not indicate the injury problem in terms of the medical and financial consequences. By linking crash, vehicle, and behavior characteristics to their specific medical and financial outcomes, we can identify prevention factors.

*According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), “A motor vehicle crash is considered to be alcohol-related if at least one driver or non-occupant (such as a pedestrian or pedalcyclist) involved in the crash is determined to have had a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of .01 gram per deciliter (g/dL) or higher. Thus, any fatality that occurs in an alcohol-related crash is considered an alcohol-related fatality. The term ‘alcohol-related’ does not indicate that a crash or fatality was caused by the presence of alcohol.” **A driver involved in a motor vehicle crash is considered alcohol-impaired if he or she exhibits a BAC of .08 or greater. http://responsibility.org/state-facts has each state statistics http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812017.pdf http://www.ots.ca.gov/OTS_and_Traffic_Safety/Score_Card.asp http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxqVmDeIDvo&NR=1 http://www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-statistics.html http://www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-statistics-texas.html change state name! http://www.centurycouncil.org/learn-the-facts/statefacts/states/CA http://www.centurycouncil.org/learn-the-facts/drunk-driving-research#888 http://www.stopimpaireddriving.org/ Before you start, save the example file and rename this file as YOURLASTNAME_DUI Stats 1) Each student will research DUI statistics for a different one of the fifty states. 2) Students will research several websites for laws, penalties and data on driving fatalities associated with alcohol such as www.alcoholalert.com or http://alcoholpolicy.niaaa.nih.gov/ or http://www2.potsdam.edu/hansondj/DrinkingAndDriving.html . 3) The main statistical components of the project are regression analysis, finding the best model, a twoproportion z-test comparing to California, and a two-proportion z-interval. Minor statistical components are boxplot and histogram.

Power Point, DVD, video, Poster or Prezi: with full page graphs and the following:
Introduction: What did the research reveal about the DUI laws and penalties for your state? Any other interesting discoveries? How does this compare to California? How do the 2012* proportions of DUI fatalities in your state compare to California? Use a one-tailed two-proportion z-test and two-proportion z-interval. Copy data from http://www.alcoholalert.com/drunk-driving-statistics-texas.html change state name! and paste into columns into EXCEL spreadsheet and analyze the alcohol-related fatalities for the state that was chosen. Find the alc-related proportions by dividing the column of alc-related fatalities by the total fatalities in each year. Explanation of the data collected* by your research. ? Make a boxplot of the DUI fatalities for your state for the years from 1982 to 2012 and comment on the features of the boxplot. Make a histogram of the DUI fatalities (same data as the boxplot). Compare and contrast the features of the histogram display to the boxplot. ? Find six comparisons between your chosen state and California that was found in the 2012 State of Drunk Driving Fatalities in America. ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Using excel, make a scatterplot with the years 1982 to 2012 on the x-axis and the DUI fatality rates on the y-axis. Find a linear model and the correlation. Include the line on the scatterplot, and label x-bar, y-bar. Calculate and interpret the value of r2. Find the residuals, and se and interpret in context. Make a residual plot and assess the fit of the linear model based on the residual plot. Find a better model for some or all of the bivariate data and explain the reasoning for your method. Do not use cubic or quartic! Stick with a simple curve, and more recent data last 10 to 12 years. Complete a linear regression test to determine the usefulness of the model. What other statistics such as “driving distracted”, “texting”, “speeding fatalities” or “drowsy driving” was learned from research for the project?

California Drunk Driving Statistics

As shown below, the percentage of alcohol related fatalities out of the total number of traffic fatalities in California was highest in 1982 at 61%, but the total number of alcohol related fatalities peaked in 1987 with 2,961. Since then, there was a steady decline in both the total number of driving fatalities and in drunk driving deaths, until 1998. From 1998 through 2005, there was a stubborn reversal of the downward trend. In 2008, out of all traffic fatalities, 30% involved a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.08 or higher, which accounted for 1029 deaths.

Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Tot 4615 4573 5020 4960 5253 5504 5392 5412 5192 4688 4192 4164 4232 4192 3989 3688 3494 3559 3753 3956 4088 4215 4120 4329

Fatalities Alc-Rel % 2799 61 2669 58 2894 58 2633 53 2813 54 2961 54 2773 51 2795 52 2697 52 2263 48 2015 48 1815 44 1743 41 1758 42 1666 42 1348 37 1367 39 1397 39 1450 39 1552 39 1628 40 1626 39 1643 40 1719 40

0.08+ 2484 2345 2522 2262 2370 2459 2354 2421 2305 1946 1687 1534 1468 1445 1368 1113 1133 1163 1199 1255 1326 1378 1367 1466

% 54 51 50 46 45 45 44 45 44 42 40 37 35 34 34 30 32 33 32 32 32 33 33 34

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

4229 3974 3434 3,081 2715 2791

1509 1405 1198 1,118 924 886

36 35 35 36 34 32

1276 1155 1029 950 791 774

30 29 30 31 29 28

2012 2857 803 28 The project will mainly focus on the first four columns. For every year the chart gives the total automobile fatalities, the total alcohol related automobile fatalities, and the percent of the automobile fatalities were alcohol related. Oral Presentations with Visual Aids (Posters, videos or Power Points)Individual student DUI presentations, about 5-6 minute presentations using Power Point, posters or overhead transparencies. Students will be scored on clarity of analysis, creativity, involvement of the class, and should be prepared for questions. Were correct methods used in hypothesis testing? Are the conclusions and analysis accurate and in context of the data collected?
In fatal crashes in 2011 the highest percentage of drivers with a BAC level of .08 or higher was for drivers ages 21 to 24. The proportion of drivers involved in fatal crashes with BAC levels of .08 or higher was 24 percent among males and 14 percent among females. The percentages of drivers involved in fatal crashes with a BAC level of .08 or higher in 2011 were 29 percent for motorcycles, 24 percent for passenger cars, and 21 percent for light trucks. Alcohol-related deaths in the US since 1982 (these numbers will adjust on occasion as new data arrives): U.S. Total fatalities Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Number 43,945 42,589 44,257 43,825 46,087 46,390 47,087 45,582 44,599 41,508 39,250 40,150 40,716 41,817 42,065 42,013 41,501 41,717 Alcohol-related fatalities Number 26,173 24,635 24,762 23,167 25,017 24,094 23,833 22,424 22,587 20,159 18,290 17,908 17,308 17,732 17,749 16,711 16,673 16,572 Percent 26173/43945 = 60 58 56 53 54 52 51 49 51 49 47 45 43 42 42 40 40 40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

41,945 42,196 43,005 42,643 42,518 43,443 42,532 41,059 37,261 33,808 32,885 32,367 33,561

17,380 17,400 17,524 17,013 16,919 16,885 15,829 15,387 13,846 12,744 10,228 9,878 10,322

41 41 41 40 39 39 37 37 37 38 31 38 31

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja42o3m_o5Y&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3yhiXlNRjU&feature=related

Minnesota Field Sobriety Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3yhiXlNRjU&feature=related News Anchor arrested for DUI, hit pedestrian in Winston-Salem http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Il0Nvfx8IQ&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyNw0vKsuzg&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz8dsvm0GFo Best video!

AP Stats Oral Presentation Rubric May 16, 20, 22
Period ___ Name____________ State____________________
_______(25) Involving the Class, Creativity and Interest _______(100) Clarity and Accuracy of Analysis (Can the class understand your explanation and
analysis? Did you use correct methods in hypothesis testing? Are your conclusions and analysis accurate and in context of the data collected? Are all parts of the project included? ) _______(8) DUI laws and penalties for your state compared to CA. _______(5) Make a boxplot of the DUI fatalities for your state for the years from 1982 to 2012 and comment on the features of the boxplot. _______(10) Make a histogram of the DUI fatalities (same data as the boxplot). Compare and contrast the features of the histogram display to the boxplot. _______(10) Find six comparisons between your chosen state and California that was found in the 2012 State of Drunk Driving Fatalities in America. _______(7) Using excel, make a scatterplot with the years 1982 to 2012 on the x-axis and the DUI fatality rates on the y-axis. _______(7) Find a linear model and the correlation. Include the line on the scatterplot, and label x-bar, y-bar. _______(5) Calculate and interpret the value of r2. _______(8) Find the residuals, and se and interpret in context. _______(5) Make a residual plot and assess the fit of the linear model based on the residual plot. _______(10) Find a better model for some or all of the bivariate data and explain the reasoning for your method. Hint: Try the last 10 years. . . or the last 12 years. _______(10) Complete a linear regression test to determine the usefulness of the model. _______(5) What other statistics such as “driving distracted”, “speeding fatalities” or “drowsy driving” was learned from research for the project? _______(10) How do the 2012* proportions of DUI fatalities in your state compare to California? Use a one-tailed two-proportion z-test and two-proportion z-interval. Conclusions and analysis accurate and in context.

_______(30) Use of Visuals, power point, video, prezi, posters or other. (Visuals that are helpful to enhance understanding) _______(25) Preparation, originality, effort _______(20) On time (5 to 7 minutes) penalty for under 5 minutes or over 7 min _______(bonus) Extra analysis to impress the class, doing more than the minimum requirements

_______(200) Total points for AP Statistics Oral Presentation

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