FORECASTING
Requirements:
1. Build analytical stock control model/s. What stock control policies do these model/s suggest? State clearly any assumptions you need to make in order to be able to apply these model/s.

2. For each of the policies given (Warnsley Ltd. and Lorrjon Ltd.), build a simulation model. Analyse both policies and recommend for:

i. Warnsley Ltd.: the re-order interval and the desired stock level after satisfying any outstanding orders.
ii. Lorrjon Ltd.: the re-order level and re-order quantity

For each policy, use your model to recommend a system which will provide a 95% service level.

3. Compare and contrast the models and results from (1) and (2) in a report.
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Task 2 multiple input forecast model:
As forecasters, our job is take limited information and predict the future. At Intuit, we have a wealth of information about our customers and their support needs, but still deal with some uncertainty. Currently, we use that data and several different methodologies to forecast our future. Attached, you will find one of our basic forecasting models. We’d like you to review the existing forecast to determine how to best proceed looking forward. Provided is both historical information and some predicted future information. In the attached file, assume that “today” is year 3 week 30, from there we’d like you to forecast the remainder of the current year and for the upcoming year. As you’d expect a year runs for 52 weeks.

A few key points about our data:
• We’ve provided total historical contact volume data as well as a segmentation based on 2 customer types, New User and Tenured User. In addition we’ve provided sales actuals and forecasts for new users through the remainder of the current year.
Historical contact volume
o Total historical weekly contact volume (Col C).
Customer user base information
o 2 customer types: New Users which are defined as a customers of the product for 60 days or less and Tenured Users which are defined as a customers for more than 60 days.
o New user and tenured user contact volume percentages are the split of contacts between new users and tenured users (Col D-E).
o The New User and Tenured User contact volume percentages are used to calculate the new user historical contact volume (Col H) and the tenured user historical contact volume Col K).
o In addition, for new users you have the sales actuals (Col F) through year 4 week 29. You have the sales forecast (Col I) through year 4 week 52.

• Using that information you are able to calculate your New User historical contact volume (col I) and your Tenured User historical contact volume (col L). You also have available the New User weekly sales actuals (col F) and the New User weekly sales forecast through the end of the current year (col G).

• Using supplied data points in Interview Forecast Model 031116.xlsx:
1. Create New User unit forecast for upcoming year.
a. Evaluate and update new user unit weekly forecast to end of Year 4 in column G.
b. New User units in the upcoming year are expected to increase 10% over the current year.
2. Update New User Contact Volume weekly forecast through end of Year 4.
a. Create formula needed for model to create New User contact volume forecast in Column I.
b. A forecast model is included. You can use that or build your own formula that you think improves on that calculation.
3. Update Tenured User Contact Volume weekly forecast through end of Year 4.
a. Create formula needed for model to create Tenured User contact volume forecast in Column L.
b. A forecast model is included. You can use that or build your own formula that you think improves on that calculation.
4. Combine New User Volume Forecast and Tenured User Volume Forecast into a Total Weekly Volume Forecast in column M.

• Deliverables:
1. Weekly volume projections (xlsx)
2. Two slides showing your forecast (ppt, pdf, keynote, etc.):

3. Slide 1 should show updated forecast output with a focus on explaining changes to expected volume to business leaders.
4. Slide 2 should show updated forecast output intended for peer review focusing on updates/changes to previous model.